If you don't know about Peak Oil (PO) I hope this blog will at least give you an introduction to it. Believe me there are many others out there who can explain more than I can. I see my mission simply to inform people about this problem. Hopefully your visit here will get you curious about the subject and encourage you to learn more. If that is done I will consider myself successful. In the meantime I'll try to post when I find something of importance.
If you are familiar with PO then you are one of two types; either you are a believer or a skeptic. I've found both to be passionate. I wish it were possible for me to be a skeptic. In my research (and I've done MANY hours) I TRY to find rebuttals of PO. If the problem really isn't there then all is well.....GOOD! That's what I hope the case to be! However, try as I might, I simply cannot get past the logic of the idea, and here is why I believe:
Crude oil is a finite resource. It has to run out. It's scientifically impossible for it not to. But remember this, and this is a crucial point in talking about PO. PO is not about running out of oil its about running out of cheap & plentiful oil. Mankind will probably never run out of the stuff. I'm sure that 500 years from now somebody somewhere will be pumping crude oil from the ground. It's the idea that the cheap & plentiful supply of oil that our entire society is based on will be diminished.
Every area of the world that has ever been a major oil producer has followed the same curve, often called the Hibbert curve after Shell Oil geologist Marrion King Hibbert who accurately predicted that the US would reach it's production peak in the early 1970's. In fact the United States reached it's maximum oil output in 1970. The curve is a steady up slope after extraction first begins. It continues to rise till oil extraction reaches it's maximum or "peak". After a short plateau the field or fields begin to yield less and less till the field reservoir is totally depleated.
This happened in the small corner of Northwest PA where I grew up. This little area of Pennsylvania was the OPEC of it's day. Production rose, peaked and fell. We then found even greater fields in Texas & Oklahoma. Production there rose, peaked and fell. We found oil in Alaska. We went and built a big pipeline to get it. Production rose, peaked and is currently falling. The North Sea fields, the wells in the Gulf of Mexico, Saudi Arabian, Iranian and Kuwaiti oil fields have all peaked and are in their plateau phase or in decline. If you look at the world as one giant 'region' then it follows that world oil production will follow the Hibbert curve. I would encourage you to watch the short black & white animation in the video section at the bottom of the page
As I said, this is why I subscribe to the PO theory. If I have been successful in informing you about PO that's all I can ask for. If I have please leave a quick comment. If you happen to disagree with me please post and tell me why. Remember I WANT my concerns/fears to be relieved. All I ask is that you be respectful. I have seen many sites where rudeness abounds as this subject seems to provoke intense feelings on both sides. I welcome frank discussions
2 comments:
Welcome, Jim, to the Blogosphere!
I can't believe there are people who don't understand the PO concept. To me, it seems pretty basic. There is a certain amount of something readily available, and it's been proven over and over that it's getting harder and harder to come by. Since this latest energy crisis it seemed like folks were paying more attention to this, but now after reading your blog I'm not so sure.
My friend Dr. Don (www.38calibertherapy.blogspot.com) is fond of saying people simply don't want to change their behavior, and I think that's true. If you can find the key to getting peopel both to understand and then do something about the Peak Oil situation, you'll have pretty much saved the world! Go for it!!
Looking forward to reading more!
MM
Nice blog. People try to paint those of us who see PO as very real as eccentrics. You might want to look at my latest post which articulates my view of the issue of upcoming energy problems in the U.S.
All the best,
Don
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